The gap between China’s nominal exports and imports to the US is the largest ever, as Fig.1. below shows. This is the argument used by President Donald Trump for raising import tariffs on Chinese goods.
While the move has sparked tensions between the two countries, we believe a positive side-effect is that it could well accelerate the opening of China's services sector to overseas participation. China has promised to open its economy further – in particular promising to speed up the pace of ownership reforms for the country’s financial sector with a timeline for implementation of just a few months, which could help avert a trade war.
Overall however, Trump’s plan for a drastic rise in tariffs is unlikely to reduce the US trade deficit with China. The US simply cannot produce the goods currently imported from China at competitive rates, at least not in the short term. For now, it will have to continue importing these goods and higher import tariffs will make them more expensive, pushing up inflation in the US.Economist Anjeza Kadilli is just back from Argentina and Brazil where she met with policy makers.
She believes Brazil and Argentina could be the big beneficiaries of the trade tension between the US and China. Both Brazil and Argentina already account for a large part of soybean exports to China. Their share will be even bigger if China decides to stop imports from the US. This new pattern would open opportunities for investors not only in agriculture, but also in related sectors such as manufacturing, infrastructure and machinery.
One obstacle is that Brazil and Argentina currently have the highest import tariffs (14.1% and 14.3% respectively, excluding agricultural products) and are also fairly closed economies (see Fig.2).
However, from what she heard during her trip, Anjeza feels there is a strong will, from Brazil in particular, to reduce tariffs even if this means doing it unilaterally. Policymakers would focus domestic production on segments where they have real added value (e.g. agriculture), and reduce tariffs in areas where they cannot reasonably compete with overseas competition (e.g. industrial sectors). This would be a positive development for the efficiency of these markets.Important legal information
This marketing material is issued by Pictet Asset Management (Europe) S.A.. It is neither directed to, nor intended for distribution or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or domiciled or located in, any locality, state, country or jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. The latest version of the fund‘s prospectus, Pre-Contractual Template (PCT) when applicable, Key Information Document (KID), annual and semi-annual reports must be read before investing. They are available free of charge in English on www.assetmanagement.pictet or in paper copy at Pictet Asset Management (Europe) S.A., 6B, rue du Fort Niedergruenewald, L-2226 Luxembourg, or at the office of the fund local agent, distributor or centralizing agent if any.
The KID is also available in the local language of each country where the compartment is registered. The prospectus, the PCT when applicable, and the annual and semi-annual reports may also be available in other languages, please refer to the website for other available languages. Only the latest version of these documents may be relied upon as the basis for investment decisions.
The summary of investor rights (in English and in the different languages of our website) is available here and at www.assetmanagement.pictet under the heading "Resources", at the bottom of the page.
The list of countries where the fund is registered can be obtained at all times from Pictet Asset Management (Europe) S.A., which may decide to terminate the arrangements made for the marketing of the fund or compartments of the fund in any given country.
The information and data presented in this document are not to be considered as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or subscribe to any securities or financial instruments or services.
Information, opinions and estimates contained in this document reflect a judgment at the original date of publication and are subject to change without notice. The management company has not taken any steps to ensure that the securities referred to in this document are suitable for any particular investor and this document is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each investor and may be subject to change in the future. Before making any investment decision, investors are recommended to ascertain if this investment is suitable for them in light of their financial knowledge and experience, investment goals and financial situation, or to obtain specific advice from an industry professional.
The value and income of any of the securities or financial instruments mentioned in this document may fall as well as rise and, as a consequence, investors may receive back less than originally invested.
The investment guidelines are internal guidelines which are subject to change at any time and without any notice within the limits of the fund's prospectus. The mentioned financial instruments are provided for illustrative purposes only and shall not be considered as a direct offering, investment recommendation or investment advice. Reference to a specific security is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Effective allocations are subject to change and may have changed since the date of the marketing material.
Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future performance. Performance data does not include the commissions and fees charged at the time of subscribing for or redeeming shares.
Any index data referenced herein remains the property of the Data Vendor. Data Vendor Disclaimers are available on assetmanagement.pictet in the “Resources” section of the footer. This document is a marketing communication issued by Pictet Asset Management and is not in scope for any MiFID II/MiFIR requirements specifically related to investment research. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any products or services offered or distributed by Pictet Asset Management.
Pictet AM has not acquired any rights or license to reproduce the trademarks, logos or images set out in this document except that it holds the rights to use any entity of the Pictet group trademarks. For illustrative purposes only.